Once Upon a Time: On Track for Cancellation or Season Two?

ABC has tried numerous times to find a new hit drama to help replace some of their aging ones. Pan Am has been a disappointment and Revenge hasn’t been a big success but Once Upon a Time looked like a winner right out of the gate. But, how do things look now? Is the show on track to land a season two renewal or could it end up cancelled?

On Once Upon a Time, the daughter (Jennifer Morrison) of Snow White (Ginnifer Goodwin) and Prince Charming (Joshua Dallas) tries to help fairy-tale characters who’ve been cursed by the Evil Queen (Lana Parrilla) and ended up living in a small town in Maine. The series also features the talents of Robert Carlyle, Jared Gilmore, Raphael Sbarge, Meghan Ory, Jamie Dornan, Beverley Elliott, Lee Arenberg, David Paul Grove, and Gabe Khouth.

The new drama started off with a bang and a solid 4.0 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 12.93 million viewers. It was second in it’s timeslot which was impressive considering that Once Upon a Time’s debut had to compete with the World Series and popular shows on cable.

New series often fall 10-20% in their second week on the air but Once Upon a Time bucked the trend and dropped a mere 3% to a 3.9 rating in the all-important demo. In week three, the numbers fell just a bit more — to a 3.8 rating — and the series got a full season pick-up.

Unfortunately, the numbers keep dropping. With the exception of the fourth week (which didn’t drop or gain), Once Upon a Time has dropped in the demo and in total viewership each week. The last episode of 2011 drew a 2.9 rating and 8.92 million viewers, a new series low. That’s a far cry from the debut and the holiday hiatus surely hasn’t helped things.

While Once Upon a Time isn’t in trouble yet, its no longer looking like a big hit and could easily be in trouble. Remember FlashForward?

That ABC series debuted with nearly the exact same ratings two years earlier. It also looked like the big hit of the season but the numbers kept eroding each week. After seven episodes, FlashForward had dropped 35% in the demo. It kept falling until it was cancelled. After seven episodes, Once Upon a Time has fallen 28%. Hopefully, it’ll have a happier ending.

What do you think? Do you think Once Upon a Time will keep falling? Will it survive and see a second season or do you think it’ll end up being cancelled?