CW TV Show Rankings for 2010-11 season [week of 12/19/10 update]

Which CW TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? The network aired only repeats during the week leading up the Christmas so the series rankings weren’t affected at all. Nikita continues to be the CW series most in danger of being cancelled. One Tree Hill, which was almost cancelled last May, is on much better footing right now.

Below is a list of the regular CW TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-34 female demographic averages, the group that the CW focuses on attracting and selling to advertisers. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

W 18-34 demo rank	TV Shows	Average viewership (in millions)	Average 18-49 demo rating	Average women 18-34 demo	Compared to last week
1	The Vampire Diaries	3.40	1.6	2.5	---
2	Gossip Girl	1.86	1.0	2.3	---
3	America's Next Top Model	2.87	1.3	2.2	---
4	90210	1.93	1.0	1.8	---
4	One Tree Hill	1.91	1.0	1.8	---
6	Hellcats	2.20	0.9	1.6	---
7	Life Unexpected (cancelled)	1.52	0.7	1.3	---
8	Nikita	2.63	1.0	1.2	---
9	Supernatural	2.37	1.0	1.1	---
10	Smallville (ending)	2.71	1.1	1.0	---

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Life Unexpected). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

It should be noted that Friday nights are one of the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on that night are lower. The network understands this and takes it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week. Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. An average with a “*” may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?