FOX TV Show Rankings for 2010-11 season [week of 12/12/10 update]

Which FOX TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Glee remains the network’s top show by a large measure with House in a distant second place. The Simpsons and Family Guy are not far behind the cranky doctor’s show. It’s interesting that four of the network’s top six series are animated. Raising Hope is squarely in the middle of the pack and benefits greatly from following Glee. Could another show do better?

Bones continues to be a solid player, competing on the highly competitive Thursday night. Lie to Me won’t be getting a full season order and often doesn’t hold onto much of the House lead-in audience. Fringe is heading to Friday nights but FOX contends that it’s not being put out to pasture (we’ll have to see how patient they are). Human Target is struggling on Wednesdays and Running Wilde is all but cancelled.

Below is a list of the regular FOX TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach.

	Scripted TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo
1	Glee	11.61	4.8
2	House	10.08	3.8
3	The Simpsons	8.20	3.7
3	Family Guy	7.53	3.7
5	The Cleveland Show	6.41	3.0
6	American Dad	5.71	2.7
7	Raising Hope	6.26	2.6
8	Bones	9.28	2.5
9	Lie To Me	5.54	1.9
9	Fringe	5.08	1.9
11	Human Target	5.96	1.7
12	Running Wilde	3.72	1.6
13	Lone Star (cancelled)	3.66	1.1
14	The Good Guys (cancelled)	2.46	0.7
	News or Reality TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo
1	Hell's Kitchen 9pm	6.33	2.7
1	Hell's Kitchen 8pm	6.03	2.7
3	America's Most Wanted	4.83	1.6
4	Cops	4.45	1.5

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like The Good Guys and Lone Star). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. The ratings with an “*” may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?