ABC TV Show Rankings for 2010-11 season [1/15/11 update]

Which ABC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Several ABC shows saw some significant rises and drops in the ratings this week. Though it’s late in the season, these fluctuations were enough to affect the season average rankings. The Middle saw a season high with a 3.0 in the demo and 10.10 million viewers. ABC didn’t make a mistake in having faith and renewing this show last May and now, for a third season.

Castle was down by nearly 13% in the demo, competing against a repeat of The Cape and a rerun of Hawaii Five-0. No worries though, the show’s already been renewed for next season. No Ordinary Family dropped more than 21% in the demo to reach a new series low with a 1.5 in the demo and 5.33 million viewers. Not good news for a show that’s already in significant danger.

In week two of its second season, V dropped 10%. Week one was bad and this was worse with a 1.9 in the demo and 5.77 million viewers. Unless these numbers turn around, fans shouldn’t get their hopes up for season three of V.

Because of the President’s address from Tucson, the premiere of Off the Map was messed up a bit. On Wednesday, it garnered a mediocre 2.3 in the demo and 7.57 million viewers. ABC reran it the next night, in place of Private Practice. It’ll be interesting to see how it does in its second outing. Perhaps the added exposure will end up helping. We will see.

You can see a complete list of the cancel/renew standings of this season’s shows by checking the ABC cancelled/renewed post.

Below is a list of the regular ABC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, how the network measures success. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

Demo rank	Scripted TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo	Compared to last week
1	Modern Family (renewed)	11.91	4.7	down
2	Grey's Anatomy (renewed)	11.92	4.4	---
3	Desperate Housewives	12.27	3.9	---
4	Private Practice (renewed)	8.24	3.0	---
4	Cougar Town (renewed)	7.26	3.0	---
6	The Middle (renewed)	8.91	2.7	up
7	Castle (renewed)	10.32	2.5	down
7	Brothers & Sisters	8.57	2.5	---
9	Off the Map	7.57	2.3	new
9	Better With You	7.20	2.3	---
11	No Ordinary Family	7.37	2.1	down
11	V	6.18	2.1	down
13	Detroit 1-8-7	7.43	1.7	---
14	My Generation (cancelled)	4.49	1.4	---
15	The Whole Truth (cancelled)	4.39	1.2	---
Demo rank	News or Reality TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo	Compared to last week
1	Dancing With The Stars	20.61	4.3	---
2	Wipeout	11.16	3.8	---
3	Dancing With The Stars results	17.85	3.7	---
4	The Bachelor	8.75	2.8	down
5	Extreme Makeover: Home Edition	8.35	2.3	---
6	America's Funniest Home Videos	7.40	2.0	---
7	20/20	5.58	1.6	---
7	Primetime: What Would You Do	5.14	1.6	---
9	Supernanny	4.51	1.2	---
10	Skating with the Stars	4.99	1.1	---

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like The Whole Truth and My Generation). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week. Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later so those ratings may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?