NBC TV Show Rankings for 2010-11 Season [as of 2/24/11]

Which NBC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? In large part this depends on a show’s ratings, particularly the 18-49 demographic. The lower the ratings, the more likely a show is to be cancelled.

Before we get to the season-to-date averages, here are the winners and losers from February 18th until February 24th — in terms of the coveted 18-49 demographic, as measured against the last original episode.

Week-to-Week Winners: Dateline 1.6/5 (Fri, +14.3% vs last Fri ep), Parenthood 2.1/6 (+10.5%), Law & Order: SVU 2.5/7 (+13.6%), Parks and Recreation 2.4/6 (+9.1%), 30 Rock 2.3/6 (+15.0%)

No change: Chuck 1.7/4, The Cape 1.2/3, Harry’s Law 1.7/5, The Biggest Loser 2.7/8, Minute to Win It 1.0/3, Community 1.8/5, Perfect Couples 1.4/4

Week-to-Week Losers: Who Do You Think You Are? 1.3/5 (-7.1%), Dateline 0.9/3 (-25.0% Sun), The Office 3.2/9 (-3.0%), Outsourced 1.4/4 (-6.7%)

For a complete list of NBC cancellations and renewals for the 2010-11 season, be sure to check out this post. It’ll be updated as the peacock network renews and cancels more shows.

Below is a list of the regular NBC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, the audience most important to the network. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

Demo rank	Scripted TV Shows	Average viewership (in millions)	Average 18-49 demo rating	Compared to last week
1	The Office	7.33	3.7	down
2	Parks and Recreation	5.14	2.6	down
3	Law & Order: SVU	8.46	2.5	---
4	30 Rock (renewed)	5.12	2.4	---
5	Outsourced	4.92	2.3	down
6	Law & Order: LA	8.24	2.2	---
6	The Event	6.86	2.2	---
8	Parenthood	5.37	2.1	---
9	Community	4.49	2.0	---
10	Harry's Law	9.83	1.9	down
10	Chuck	5.52	1.9	---
12	The Cape	5.52	1.6	down
13	Chase	5.26	1.5	---
13	Perfect Couples	3.32	1.5	down
15	Undercovers (cancelled)	5.97	1.4	---
16	Outlaw (cancelled)	4.94	1.0	---
Demo rank	News or Reality TV Shows	Average viewership (in millions)	Average 18-49 demo rating	Compared to last week
1	The Biggest Loser (winter/spring)	8.54	3.0	down
2	The Sing Off	8.56	2.9	---
3	The Biggest Loser (fall)	7.44	2.7	---
4	Minute to Win It	5.84	1.7	down
5	Dateline (Friday)	6.02	1.4	up
5	The Apprentice (fall)	3.89	1.4	---
7	Who Do You Think You Are?	6.61	1.3	down
8	Dateline (Sunday)	5.34	1.1	---
9	School Pride	2.50	0.7	---

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Outlaw and Undercovers). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.

What do you think? Do any of the rankings surprise you? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?