NBC TV Show Rankings for 2010-11 season [week of 12/12/10 update]

Which NBC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? NBC continues to struggle and has found just a little help from its new crop of shows. The Office is still the best-rated series on the network but it remains to be seen if it can survive next year without Steve Carell. Though many were outraged by Outsourced, it’s become the brightest new star on the peacock network’s schedule.

Law & Order: Los Angeles had some rough weeks on the schedule. If it can sustain a 2.2 rating, it seems likely to be safe for a second season. The Event has gone on hiatus for three months. The ratings essentially dropped every week and 90 days off the schedule isn’t likely to help. Parenthood’s been dropping as well and won’t be back until January. The episode order for struggling Chase has been reduced and the network plans to switch nights in 2011 — opposite American Idol. Does it sound like NBC’s already given up?

The Sing-Off has become a pleasant surprise for NBC. The ratings weren’t very good last season but they brought it back for another round anyway. It’s now the second highest rated show on the network. It’ll certainly be back for another season but will NBC try to run it more than once a year and end up killing the “golden goose”?

Below is a list of the regular NBC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, the audience most important to the network.

	Scripted TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo
1	The Office	7.42	3.8
2	Outsourced	5.68	2.7
3	Law & Order: SVU	8.59	2.5
3	30 Rock	5.37	2.5
5	Law & Order: LA	8.24	2.2
5	The Event	6.86	2.2
6	Parenthood	5.22	2.1
7	Community	4.64	2.0
8	Chuck	5.44	1.9
9	Chase	5.44	1.6
10	Undercovers (cancelled)	6.16	1.5
11	Outlaw (cancelled)	4.94	1.0
	News or Reality TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo
1	The Sing Off	8.54	2.9
2	The Biggest Loser	7.44	2.7
3	Minute to Win It	7.32	2.1
4	The Apprentice	3.89	1.4
5	Dateline	5.75	1.3
6	School Pride	2.50	0.7

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Outlaw and Undercovers). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

* Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. These ratings may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?