Which CBS TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? In large part this depends on a series’ ratings, particularly the 18-49 demographic. The lower the ratings, the more likely it is that a show will be cancelled.
Before we get to the season-to-date averages, here are the winners and losers from February 17th through February 24th — based on the coveted 18-49 demographic, as measured against the last original episode.
Week-to-Week Gains: The Defenders 1.3/5 (+18.2%), CSI: NY 1.8/6 (+12.5%), 48 Hours 1.2/4 (+20.0%), Undercover Boss 2.6/7 (+36.8%), NCIS 4.4/13 (+22.2%), NCIS: Los Angeles 3.9/11 (+18.2%), The Big Bang Theory 3.8/11 (+2.7%)
Week-to-Week Losses: Blue Bloods 1.5/5 (-28.6% from last Weds ep), 60 Minutes 1.4/4 (-30.0%), CSI: Miami 2.2/6 (-8.3%), How I Met Your Mother 3.5/10 (-5.4%), Mad Love 2.8/7 (-6.7%), Mike & Molly 3.2/8 (-15.8%), Survivor: Redemption Island 3.1/9 (-3.1%), Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 2.4/7 (-27.3%), Rules of Engagement 2.8/8 (-12.5% vs last original Mon episode), CSI 2.7/7 (-10.3%), The Mentalist 2.8/8 (-6.7%)
You can see a complete list of the current status of this season’s shows by checking the CBS cancelled/renewed post.
Below is a list of the regular CBS TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, how the network measures success. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.
|Demo rank||Scripted TV Shows||Average viewership
|1||Two and a Half Men (renewed)||14.22||4.5||---|
|2||The Big Bang Theory (renewed)||13.10||4.2||---|
|4||Mike & Molly||11.73||3.6||down|
|4||How I Met Your Mother||9.12||3.6||---|
|6||NCIS: Los Angeles||16.66||3.5||---|
|8||Rules of Engagement||8.66||3.1||---|
|10||$#*! My Dad Says||10.42||3.0||---|
|14||Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||11.44||2.8||down|
|16||The Good Wife||11.94||2.3||---|
|Demo rank||News or Reality TV Shows||Average viewership
|2||The Amazing Race (fall)||10.93||3.3||---|
|4||Survivor: Redemption Island||11.04||3.2||---|
|6||The Amazing Race (spring)||9.15||2.5||new|
|7||Live to Dance||6.23||1.4||---|
|8||48 Hours Mystery||6.04||1.3||---|
The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Medium). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.
The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive to produce. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to make but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).
It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.
Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.
What do you think? Any rankings that surprise you? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?
Image courtesy CBS.