Which NBC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Before we get to the season-to-date averages, here are the highlights of the NBC schedule.

Last Friday, a new two-hour edition of Dateline was up by more than 20% in the 18-49 demographic. On Sunday night, an hour version rated a 1.3 in the demo and 5.93 million viewers, an increase of 117% in the demo from a week earlier.

Conversely, Monday was not so good for two-thirds of the network’s shows. Chuck was down by 11% in the demo with a 1.7 rating and 5.57 million viewers. That matches the series’ previous season low. The Cape hit a new season low with a 1.5 in the demo and 5.34 million. Soonafter the ratings came out, NBC cut the show’s episode order to 10 episodes. In short, it’s doomed. Harry’s Law was the one bright spot of the night for NBC and maintained its demo rating from week two with a 2.1 rating and 11.02 million viewers. The peacock network has a hit (by NBC standards anyway) and finally a show that works on Mondays at 10pm.

On Wednesday night, NBC replaced Chase with another episode of Minute to Win It. That paid off since the game show was up by 71% over last week’s edition. NBC later announced that Chase was going on hiatus and it likely won’t be back. Law & Order: SVU benefited from the solid lead-in and was up by 24%, with a 2.9 rating and 8.81 million viewers.

For the Thursday night line-up, almost all of the sitcoms were down by less than 10%. The most significant loser was Perfect Couples which lost nearly 18% in the demo, landing at a 1.4 rating with 3.06 million viewers. Don’t expect a second season of that one.

For a complete list of NBC cancellations and renewals for the 2010-11 season, be sure to check out this post. It’ll be updated as the peacock network renews and cancels more shows.

Below is a list of the regular NBC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, the audience most important to the network. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Outlaw and Undercovers). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.

What do you think? Do any of the rankings surprise you? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?

Image courtesy NBC.