Which ABC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Before we get to the season ratings averages to date, here are the highlights of the latest movers and shakers on the ABC schedule.

Many have expressed disappointment with The Bachelor this season and indeed the ratings show that. But, after two weeks of decreases, this week’s episode was up by 7% in the demo, bring the show back to its season debut 2.9 demo rating. Castle was also up, by 14% over the last original episode.

Tuesday night’s shows were interrupted by the State of the Union address. On Wednesday, the sitcoms were in repeats but Off the Map was an original. Once again, the medical drama fell in the ratings. This week’s registered 5.06 million viewers with a 2.1 in the demo, a decrease of 14% when compared to last week’s. Not a good sign. This boat is sinking.

On Thursday, Wipeout was the only original episode on the ABC schedule and it was down by almost 8% when compared to last week’s.

You can see a complete list of the cancel/renew standings of this season’s shows by checking the ABC cancelled/renewed post.

Below is a list of the regular ABC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, how the network measures success. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like The Whole Truth and My Generation). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?