Which NBC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Most of the NBC shows were in repeats this week so there’s not much change on the ranking chart. The network aired an original episode of Undercovers, the action drama that’s already been cancelled. After being off the schedule for awhile, it’s not much of a surprise that viewership in the demo was down 15% from the last original installment on December 1st. Next week’s is the last scheduled episode which will leave two episodes unaired.

Minute to Win It was new on Tuesday night and, though the ratings were down a bit, it wasn’t enough to really impact the season average. The same is true for the season finale of The Sing-Off. NBC is certainly pleased with the performance of that one.

On the other end of the ratings chart, NBC previewed new sitcom Perfect Couples on Monday night. Despite having a good lead-in and little competition, the ratings were terrible. This doesn’t bode well for the show’s prospects when it starts airing on January 20th.

Below is a list of the regular NBC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, the audience most important to the network. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

Demo rank	Scripted TV Shows	Average viewership (in millions)	Average 18-49 demo rating	Compared to last week
1	The Office	7.42	3.8	---
2	Outsourced	5.68	2.7	---
3	Law & Order: SVU	8.59	2.5	---
3	30 Rock	5.37	2.5	---
5	Law & Order: LA	8.24	2.2	---
5	The Event	6.86	2.2	---
6	Parenthood	5.22	2.1	---
7	Community	4.64	2.0	---
8	Chuck	5.44	1.9	---
9	Chase	5.44	1.6	---
10	Undercovers (cancelled)	5.97	1.4
11	Perfect Couples	3.56	1.3	new
12	Outlaw (cancelled)	4.94	1.0	---
Demo rank	News or Reality TV Shows	Average viewership (in millions)	Average 18-49 demo rating	Compared to last week
1	The Sing Off	8.54	2.9	---
2	The Biggest Loser	7.44	2.7	---
3	Minute to Win It	7.32	2.1	---
4	The Apprentice	3.89	1.4	---
5	Dateline	5.75	1.3	---
6	School Pride	2.50	0.7	---

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Outlaw and Undercovers). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week. Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. An average with a “*” may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?

Image courtesy NBC.