Which NBC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Before we get to the season-to-date averages, here are the highlights of the NBC schedule.

On Monday, Chuck dropped almost 10% in the ratings but that wasn’t enough to shift its season average in the all-important 18-49 demographic. The Cape dropped 11% to a 1.6 rating and 5.84 million viewers. Because only a few episodes have aired so far, that made a big impact on its season rankings. Harry’s Law dropped just a little in week two and is in much better shape. It’s a big improvement over Chase.

Much of the Tuesday night line-up was interrupted by the State of the Union address. A one hour version of The Biggest Loser aired and it was up by 10% over last week’s episode, essentially compensating for last week’s 9% drop.

On Wednesday, Minute to Win It was down by almost 13% in the demo while Chase was up by an astounding 20% over last week’s installment. Unfortunately, Chase’s ratings are so poor right now that this still makes for a very poor rating.

And, on Thursday, it was the second week of all-new sitcom episodes. Community held onto the 16% gain from last week while Perfect Couples fell 19% in the 18-49 demo comapred to last week’s. That was still better than its premiere so the average rose a bit.

Though the Ricky Gervais cameo on The Office was highly anticipated, the show was actually down by 11%. Parks and Recreation was down a bit but its still at a healthy level for NBC. And finally, 30 Rock was down by 11% and Outsourced was up by nearly 6%.

For a complete list of NBC cancellations and renewals for the 2010-11 season, be sure to check out this post. It’ll be updated as the peacock network renews and cancels more shows.

Below is a list of the regular NBC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, the audience most important to the network. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Outlaw and Undercovers). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week. Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. An average with a “*” may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?

Image courtesy NBC.