Which CW TV series will be renewed or cancelled for the 2011-12 season? In large part this depends on a series’ ratings for the 18-49 demographic. The CW also puts a particular lot of weight on the 18-34 female demographic. The lower a show’s ratings, the more likely it is to be cancelled.
Before we get to the season-to-date averages, here are the winners and losers of the last seven days — based on the 18-34 female demographic, as measured against the last original episode.
Week-to-Week Gains: Supernatural (+18.2%), 90210 (+7.1%), and Gossip Girl (+5.9%).
No Change: Smallville and Nikita.
Week-to-Week Losses: One Tree Hill (-45.8%), Hellcats (-14.3%), The Vampire Diaries (-16.7%).
Wonder if your favorite FOX show’s been renewed or cancelled? Check out our comprehensive list. We’ll keep updating it as new info becomes available.
Below is a list of the regular CW TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-34 female demographic averages, the group that the CW focuses on attracting and selling to advertisers. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same.
| W 18-34 demo rank |
TV Shows | Average viewership (in millions) |
Average 18-49 demo rating |
Average women 18-34 demo |
Compared to last week |
|
| 1 | The Vampire Diaries | 3.34 | 1.5 | 2.5 | --- | |
| 2 | America's Next Top Model (fall) | 2.87 | 1.3 | 2.2 | --- | |
| 2 | Gossip Girl | 1.80 | 1.0 | 2.2 | --- | |
| 4 | One Tree Hill | 1.92 | 0.9 | 1.8 | --- | |
| 4 | 90210 | 1.88 | 0.9 | 1.8 | --- | |
| 6 | Hellcats | 2.13 | 0.9 | 1.6 | --- | |
| 7 | Life Unexpected (cancelled) | 1.52 | 0.7 | 1.3 | --- | |
| 8 | Nikita | 2.49 | 0.9 | 1.2 | --- | |
| 9 | Supernatural | 2.36 | 1.0 | 1.1 | --- | |
| 10 | Smallville (ending) | 2.69 | 1.1 | 1.0 | --- | |
The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like Life Unexpected). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.
It should be noted that Friday nights are one of the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on that night are lower. The network understands this and takes it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.
Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.
What do you think? Any surprises? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?
Image courtesy The CW.
I really really really hope that Nikita, Smallville, and One Tree Hill don’t get cancelled. These are my three FAVORITE shows!
Supernatural and vampire diaries r the best shows… I think supernatural should be moved to a different night tho so that it gets more viewers
These charts don’t make sense. You say Supernatural is up 18.2 % but.. last week it was the same numbers you post this week, the same extact numbers.. how can you rise 18.2 % and stay with the same numbers ? And how
Supernatural is the only show still good on that network.
@kevin: Remember, these are season averages. The show’s ratings go up and down each week but basically stay in the same range. Therefore the average doesn’t change much. If next week’s episode gets the same rating (a 1.3 in the 18-34 demo), then the average will rise to a 1.1 average. Hope that helps.
thursdays and fridays have the best ratings on the CW. Next year should be the same way
Thusdays-VD and Secret Circle
Friday-Supernatural and Nikita
I wonder when the New Zombie show will air it seems like it would be good with SPN, but a new show on friday is new good maybe they will have it and SPN on wednesdays and Nikta and Hell cats on fridays.
I think something is wrong on the Gossip Girl section of the chart. Total viewers are 1.8 million and 18-34 women are 2.2 million. I don’t think it’s possible to have a demographic be greater than total viewers.
I’m surprised Nikita and Hellcats are close to the bottom when I remember hearing they were “big hits.” I think Hellcats has a 50/50 chance of making it to a second season. Nikita has a chance, but from these ratings, very slim and most likely will join the other failed attempts of women-lead action shows and remakes/reboots. Note: I actually like Nikita a lot, but know how the awful ratings system does not work. I think Supernatural will and should get the axe, it’s had a great run but has turned into one of those shows that you say “this… Read more »