Which ABC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? ABC kicked off the new year with some returning shows. The most promising was the winter version of Wipeout. Though this is just based on one episode, it ranks as the second-highest rated reality show on the network, wedged between the performance and results editions of Dancing with the Stars.

The Bachelor didn’t have such good news but still ranks at number four on the list. V had a much more disappointing return. Its first episode back puts it just under No Ordinary Family which has been falling and is almost certain to be cancelled. Nine episodes of V remain for the drama to get its ratings up. Things don’t look good.

Several ABC shows were just renewed for next season — Modern Family, Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice, Cougar Town, Castle, and The Middle. Its no surprise that they’re from the top part of the demo list. You can see a complete list of the standings of this season’s shows by checking the ABC cancelled/renewed post.

Below is a list of the regular ABC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, how the network measures success. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like The Whole Truth and My Generation). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week. Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. The ratings with an “*” may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?

Image courtesy ABC.