When Alcatraz debuted, it looked like the show had a very good chance at being renewed for a second season. But how do things look now? Will the TV series be cancelled after all?

Alcatraz follows police detective Rebecca Madsen (Sarah Jones) and Dr. Diego Soto (Jorge Garcia) as they try to solve the mystery of how 340 prison inmates and guards disappeared in 1963 and are now reappearing in modern day. The cast also includes Jonny Coyne, Parminder Nagra, Jason Butler Harner, and Sam Neill.

The TV show debuted with a solid 3.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 10.05 million total viewers. In week two, the demo slipped 9% to a still respectable 3.0 rating with 9.03 million. New shows typically fall 15-20% in their second week so this was a good sign. Week three dropped another 7%. That wasn’t positive but not horrible either.

Unfortunately, the ratings have just kept falling. In February, NBC kicked off the second season of The Voice and Alcaraz took a big hit, dropping 18% on February 6th and then another 17% on the 13th. And the numbers just keep going down. Last week’s episode was a series low with a 2.1 in the demo.

For the first time in many years, the big networks all have really strong programming on Monday nights and FOX has ended up on the bottom. House, which is in its final season, keeps dropping and so does Alcatraz.

Alcatraz’s season average is currently a 2.3 in the demo with 7.1 million. On our FOX report card — which ranks the network’s shows based on demo averages — Alcatraz has a “C.” Terra Nova, which has already been cancelled, had a better demo average and has a “C+”. When a show that was performing better than yours has been cancelled, that’s not a good sign.

Alcatraz is definitely on the bubble but, in light of the downward ratings trend, I expect it to be cancelled by May. There’s just no reason to expect that the series will do any better if given a second season.

But, what do you think? Do you think Alcatraz will beat the odds and be renewed for a second season? Should it be cancelled?

Image courtesy FOX.