Which FOX TV shows will be renewed or cancelled for the 2011-12 season? Before we get to the 18-49 demographic season averages, which play a big role in the networks’ decisions, let’s take a look at the last seven days’ most notable highs and lows.

Last Friday night, a new episode of Kitchen Nightmares was down by 11% in the 18-49 demographic (when compared to the last episode). Fringe matched its previous week’s performance which was actually up 12% from its previous Thursday night showing. Impressive.

On Saturday night, FOX dominated with its usual line-up of Cops, a Cops rerun, and America’s Most Wanted. Cops scored the usual 1.6 rating in the demo and 4.86 million viewers. The rerun of Cops at 8:30, as per usual, outperformed the original episode. At 9pm, AMW was up by 6% with a 1.8 rating and 5.32 million.

On Monday, it was a good night for Human Target, with a 62% increase over its last original episode on a Friday. It rated a 2.1 with 7.75 million viewers. That led into the season (possibly series) finale of Lie to Me. That was down by 12% in the demo with a 2.2 rating and 7.06 million. Still, this was one of the show’s best performances of the season.

On Tuesday, the season (possibly series) finale of Million Dollar Money Drop aired. It was down by 5% in the demo with a weak 1.8 demo rating and 5.14 million.

On Wednesday, American Idol easily won the night but was down 2% from last week’s, scoring a 9.0 rating and 25.14 million. Human Target got a nice boost to a 2.6 rating and 9.22 million. On Thursday, American Idol did about the same as last week. Bones, which had been up by 11% last week, was down by 15% in the demo this week, to a 3.3 rating and 10.2 million viewers.

Wonder if your favorite FOX show’s been renewed or cancelled? Check out our comprehensive list. We’ll keep updating it as new info becomes available.

Below is a list of the regular FOX TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season, not repeats. The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like The Good Guys, Running Wilde, and Lone Star). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week.

What do you think? Any surprises on the lists? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?