Which ABC TV shows will be cancelled or renewed for the 2011-12 season? Most of ABC’s series programming was repeats for the holiday week so the rankings didn’t change. The exception to this was the final two installments of the network’s new reality series, Skating with the Stars.

Monday’s episode hit a season low with a terrible 0.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic and just 3.37 million viewers. The Tuesday finale bumped back up to a still-terrible 0.8 rating and 3.41 million total viewers. Even for a holiday run, this was a terrible performance for the series and it’s impossible to imagine ABC would bring it back for season two.

In the rankings, Skating with the Stars sunk to a 1.1 demo average for the season, tying the performance of struggling (and almost certainly ending) Supernanny on Friday nights.

Below is a list of the regular ABC TV shows and their 2010-11 season average ratings to date. It only incorporates the ratings for original episodes that have aired this season (no repeats). The data is sorted by the 18-49 demographic averages, the group that advertisers will pay the most to reach and, therefore, how the network measures success. The “compared to” column reflects whether the demo average has gone up, down, or stayed the same since last week.

Demo rank	Scripted TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo	Compared to last week
1	Modern Family	12.00	4.7	---
2	Grey's Anatomy	11.90	4.4	---
3	Desperate Housewives	12.22	3.9	---
4	Private Practice	8.24	3.0	---
4	Cougar Town	7.34	3.0	---
6	Castle	10.52	2.6	---
6	The Middle	8.74	2.6	---
6	Brothers & Sisters	8.64	2.6	---
9	Better With You	7.18	2.3	---
10	No Ordinary Family	7.63	2.2	---
11	Detroit 1-8-7	7.89	1.8	---
12	My Generation (cancelled)	4.49	1.4	---
13	The Whole Truth (cancelled)	4.39	1.2	---
Demo rank	News or Reality TV Shows	Average viewers (millions)	Average 18-49 demo	Compared to last week
1	Dancing With The Stars	20.61	4.3	---
2	Dancing With The Stars results	17.85	3.7	---
3	Extreme Makeover: Home Edition	8.17	2.2	---
4	America's Funniest Home Videos	7.30	2.0	---
5	20/20	5.55	1.6	---
5	Primetime: What Would You Do	5.24	1.6	---
7	Skating with the Stars	4.99	1.1
7	Supernanny	4.45	1.1	---

The closer a show is to the bottom of the list, the closer it is to being cancelled (if it hasn’t been cancelled already like The Whole Truth and My Generation). If it’s closer to the top of the list, it’s more likely to be renewed. Shows that are in the middle (“on the bubble”) can be a little tougher to call. Their future typically comes down to other factors like overall costs, contracts, who produces the show, and what new shows are on the horizon.

The list has been separated into two sections. Of the two, scripted programming is the most expensive. News and reality TV shows are less expensive to produce but the networks can’t program just news/reality (though they might like to since they are less of a financial risk).

It should be noted that Friday and Saturday nights are the least watched evenings of television so ratings for shows on those nights are lower. The networks understand this and take it into account. However, regardless of when a show is aired, its production costs remain the same. Ultimately, it must still be profitable enough for the network to keep ordering more episodes.

Raw data: © The Nielsen Company via Media Week. Nielsen doesn’t release the final Friday and Saturday night ratings until a few days later. The ratings with an “*” may change slightly once the final numbers are released.

What do you think? Which shows do you think won’t survive to see a new season?